FXPRO蒲汇

FxPro:欧元的弹性(11.21)

Data/Event Risks

  数据/事件风险

  GBP:The minutes from the November Bank of England meeting will be watched for signs of debate around the change in forecasts seen in the latest Inflation Report. There will also be an eye on any comments on housing market developments, with more talk of bubble like conditions in some parts.

  USD:The FOMC minutes in focus, but the dovish tone from Bernanke overnight and Yellan last week have largely set the tone. Retail sales seen 0.1% in October, with headline CPI seen falling to 1.0% (from 1.2%) and the core rate seen steady at 1.7%.

  英镑:十一月英格兰银行会议纪要会被仔细研究,以检查关于最新通胀报告中预测变化是否有讨论的余地。我们还会关注任何关于房屋市场进展的言论,某些地方还可能更多谈到泡沫的问题。

  美元:联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的会议纪要是焦点,不过前一天伯南克和上周 Yellen 的温和态度已经很大程度上决定了调子。十月的零售数据为0.1%,整体CPI (从1.2%)下降到了1.0%,而核心利率稳定在1.7%。

  Idea of the Day

  今日看法

  You have to go back more than 3 years to early August 2010 to find a period equalling the past two weeks on EURUSD, during which we’ve seen higher lows for 10 consecutive sessions. Technically, there is a struggle with the previous trendline support drawn from the early July lows, which is currently acting as resistance in the current uptrend. This currently sits at 1.3534, We talked about the reason why the euro would do comparatively well in last week’s blog. Technically, there is clearly a growing case for some short-term correction, but given that daily momentum indicators are pretty neutral, this should only be modest. Note that Bernanke was sounding relatively dovish overnight, whilst ECB board members were yesterday sounding cautious on the possibility of a negative deposit rate, both of which provided underlying support to the upmove on EURUSD.

  对于欧元美元,我们必须回到三年多前2010年的八月初才能找到和过去两周一样的局面。这段时间内不断升高的低点持续了十个交易期。从技术上来看,此前从七月初的低点画出来的趋势线支撑,现在反而成为当前上行趋势的阻力。目前的位置在1.3534,我们在上周的博客中谈到了欧元为什么会变好的原因。技术上来看,很明显近期的修正有增长的趋势,不过由于每日趋势指标相当中性,这种情况应该不会太温和。要注意前一天伯南克表现得相当温和,而昨天欧洲央行委员会的成员则警告说会出现负存款利率。这两种情况都给欧元美元提供了上行的支持。

  Latest FX News

  最新外汇新闻

  USD:Comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke were pushing the dollar lower, mostly against the euro. He again reiterated that rates were set to remain near zero for a “considerable time”after asset purchase have ended. Of course, he’s stepping down in January, but being replaced by someone that is seen mirroring his views, if not taking an even more cautious approach.

  AUD:Two failed attempts to push above the 0.9450 area overnight have seen the Aussie sag towards the end of the Asia session.

  EUR:ECB Board Member Asmussen was yesterday cautious on the possibility of introducing a negative deposit rate. This has acted as a supportive factor for the single currency, after Draghi was more open on the further options available after the easing earlier this month.

  美元:美联储主席伯南克的言论让美元针对欧元走低。他再次申明资产购买结束后利率仍然会“在相当长一段时间内”维持接近零的水平。当然,他一月份就要离职,不过代替他的人似乎想法也差不多,如果此人不采取更慎重的态度的话。

  澳元:前一天两次想要突破到0.9450之上都失败了,这让澳元在亚洲盘收盘时下跌。

  欧元:欧洲央行委员会成员Asmussen 昨天谨慎谈到了出现负存款利率的可能性。这对于欧元来说是好消息,而此前Draghi 对于这个月宽松计划后可以采取进一步措施持更加开放的态度。

  FX Alerts

  JPY ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE

  日本调整贸易平衡

  20/11/13 @ 00:05 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

  http:///news/forex-news/20131120/riben-tiaozheng-maoyipingheng-shuju

  Japan Adjusted Trade Balance for October at -1.07T vs -0.88T forecast.

  日本调整了十月的贸易平衡到-1.07万亿日元,而预测是-0.88万亿。

  FX Alerts

  STERLING SLIGHTLY SOFTER AFTER MINUTES

  会议内容发布后英镑轻微疲软

  20/11/13 @ 09:32 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

  http:///news/forex-news/20131120/huiyi-neirong-fabuhou-yingbang-qingwei-piruan

  BoE minutes show 9-0 vote for rates and QE. Sterling around 20 pips softer on cable to 1.6128 after release. EURGBP 0.8392.

  英格兰银行会议纪要显示利率和量化宽松投票为9比0。消息发布后,英镑美元方面英镑疲软了20个pip左右。欧元英镑在0.8392。

  FX Alerts

  USD FIRMER AFTER RETAIL SALES

  零售数据发布后美元更坚挺

  20/11/13 @ 13:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

  http:///news/forex-news/20131120/lingshou-shuju-fabuhou-meiyuan-gengjia-jianting

  USD slightly firmer after CPI and retail sales. CPI as expected on YoY measure (1.0%), with retail sales up 0.4% MoM . EUR 1.3518, JPY 100.04, GBP 1.6140.

  CPI 和零售数据发布后美元小幅坚挺。CPI 和预期同比(1.0%)一致,而零售月环比善生了0.4%。欧元在1.3518,日元为100.04,英镑在1.6140。

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